New Delhi: Stage is set for counting votes polled in Assembly elections held across four states – Assam, Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala – and one union territory Puducherry, in the last one month. High drama has so far dominated Bengal with repolling announced in three constituencies – Falta, Diamond Harbour and Magrahat Paschim. The intense tussle to secure power is evident between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the two are at loggerheads with allegations, accusations and barbs flying both ways.
Assembly elections 2026 were held between April 9 and April 29, 2026 in all four states and one union territory. While Kerala, Assam and Puducherry went to polls in single phase on April 9, elections in Tamil Nadu and first phase in Bengal were held on April 23. Second phase pf voting was held on April 29.
A total of 823 seats went to polls last month across the four states and a union territory.
Despite all this, the preparations for vote counting is near complete and whether incumbent Mamata Banerjee will manage to secure power will be known by the end of the day tomorrow. In Tamil Nadu, DMK’s MK Stalin is looking to retain power, while in Assam and Kerala, it is Himanta Biswa Sarma and Pinarayi Vijayan, respectively.
Most exit polls for Bengal have predicted an upset for Mamata’s TMC and a big win for the BJP when the results are announced on May 4. However, Mamata’s TMC has rejected the projections, even though some predict the party will retain power and return for a fourth term. Mamata has reiterated that her party will win with 200+ seats.
Interestingly, Axis My India, one of India’s major pollsters, skipped releasing exit poll projections for West Bengal, saying voters were keeping mum about their choice. The reason behind not releasing the exit polls for Bengal stemmed from the fact that a majority of the voters, 70 per cent to be precise, refuse to participate in the exit poll survey, a statement released on behalf of Axis My India founder Pradeep Gupta said.
Most exit polls have projected a win for the Congress-led UDF in Kerala. While the Axis My India poll predicted that UDF would win 78-90 seats, the Manorama C-Voter poll said the UDF could win as high as 94 seats. The halfway mark in the 140-member Assembly is 71. The two polls gave the LDF 49-62 seats and 44-56 seats respectively. The NDA will remain a marginal player and could potentially open its account in the state Assembly, most polls said.
Assam was the only state where all the pollsters showed another term for Sarma government. Axis My India predicted a clean sweep for BJP in Assam, with NDA front getting 88-100 seats, Congress-led alliance getting 24-36 seats. According to Matrize, the NDA alliance was expected to get 85-95, the Congress alliance expected to get 25-32 seats, and Others likely to get a maximum of 12 seats.
While most pollsters have predicted another term for the MK Stalin-led DMK-led alliance, the election can also throw a surprise with Actor Vijay’s victory, similar to MG Ramachandran’s victory in 1977.
The Axis My India projections show an advantage for Vijay’s TVK leading 98-120 seats. It also showed the DMK alliance getting 92-100 seats, and AIADMK-led NDA getting 22-32 seats.
Pollsters are seeing NDA retaining the union territory. According to the predictions by People’s Pulse, the NDA alliance is likely to retain power with 15-19 seats, putting it in a strong position in the 30-member Puducherry UT assembly.
Though the Centre vs Mamata battle has been going on for a while, it only exaggerated during the polls. As Centre deployed security personnel for polls in Bengal, Mamata said it was being done to intimidate the voters and influence elections. Then there was the EVM strongroom standoff where Mamata spent nearly four hours inside a counting centre strongroom in Kolkata to “take stock” as she alleged EVM tampering attempts by the Opposition in the state. TMC leaders staged a sit-in outside Khudiram Anushilan Kendra, where EVM strongrooms for multiple constituencies are located. Leaders Kunal Ghosh and Shashi Panja alleged that CCTV footage showed outsiders inside the premises “fiddling with ballot papers”.
The Election Commission on Friday announced repolling at 15 booths in Diamond Harbour and Magrahat Paschim, while a repolling was also announced for Falta constituency and will be held on May 21.
As Vijayan eyes a historic third term from his home turf, the Kerala chief minister changed his social media bio on Sunday, just a day before the vote count. The changed bio of Vijayan now reads “Polit Bureau Member, Communist Party of India (Marxist)”.
While the Dharmadam is a storied fortress for the Left, the 2026 race is shaping up to be more than just a victory lap, both from the United Democratic Front led by Congress, and BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. Vijayan won the Dharmadam seat comfortably in 2016 and 2021.
As elections to 234 Assembly constituencies in Tamil Nadu were held on April 23, one key highlight was the women participation. A record-breaking 443 women contested the polls. The surge in nominations — peaking at nearly 1,000 filings before the final count of 443 contestants — suggests a growing appetite for political participation that transcends party tickets. A significant portion of this growth comes from independent candidates and smaller regional outfits, challenging the traditional gatekeeping of the major Dravidian parties, including the DMK and AIADMK.
