Arteev Sharma
Jammu: The continuous lack of rainfall during the ongoing winter season has mounted fears among weather forecasters and stakeholders, especially farmers, who apprehend that the prevailing situation will have a major cascading effect on the upcoming summer season across Jammu and Kashmir.
According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Jammu region recorded an 86 percent deficit in normal rainfall by January 16 this year, while the Kashmir division faced a 66 percent shortfall during the same period.
“Some rain and snowfall are expected in the coming week, but it will not substantially offset the rainfall deficit for this month,” Dr. Mukhtar Ahmed, Regional Director, IMD, J&K, told The News Now.
He warned that the prevailing situation is likely to impact day-to-day life, agriculture, and hydropower generation due to potential water scarcity.
“From October 1 to December 5, 2024, Jammu division recorded an average rainfall deficit of 67.37 percent, while Kashmir region experienced a higher shortfall of 76.25 percent,” Dr. Ahmed said while providing a breakdown of rainfall figures during this period.
“There was just 8.7 mm rainfall against a normal of 33.1 mm with a 74 percent deficit in October 2024. In November last year, only 10.9 mm of rainfall was recorded against a normal of 35.3 mm, recording a 69 percent deficit. Similarly, there was 25.1 mm rainfall against a normal of 59.4 mm with a 58 percent deficit in December last year,” the weatherman said.
A recent independent survey revealed that 2024 was the driest year in Jammu and Kashmir in the last five decades. The total rainfall recorded was a mere 870.9 mm, a significant 29% deficit compared to the annual average of 1232.3 mm.
This has intensified the region’s worries about water scarcity and its ripple effects on agriculture, hydropower, and daily life. In 2023, the region recorded 1146.6 mm of rainfall, 7 percent below the average, while 2022 saw a sharper decline with 1040.4 mm (16 percent deficit). The downward trend continued in 2021, with 892.5 mm (28 percent deficit), and in 2020, which registered 982.2 mm (20% deficit).
The data revealed a concerning trend, with 2024’s precipitation nearing the record low of 802.5 mm set in 1974. This prolonged rainfall deficit has put significant strain on rivers, water reservoirs, and groundwater sources.
Jammu, being a predominantly rain-fed region, is particularly vulnerable, as agriculture—especially paddy cultivation and sowing of other crops in Kandi belts—relies heavily on seasonal rainfall. Farmers in both Jammu and Kashmir plains have recently reported reduced crop yields, forcing them to over-exploit already-depleted groundwater resources for irrigation.
The low water levels in rivers such as Chenab, Jhelum, and Ravi have affected power generation, potentially affecting energy availability in the Union Territory and Northern region of the country.
