New Delhi: Several exit polls on Wednesday predicted a thumping victory for the BJP in Assam and a clear edge for the party over the ruling TMC in West Bengal, while projecting a return of the DMK government in Tamil Nadu and a comeback by the Congress-led UDF in Kerala after 10 years.
However, some pollsters predicted a big win for the TMC in West Bengal and a hung House in Tamil Nadu with actor-turned politician Vijay’s TVK emerging as a spoiler for the DMK.
Almost all forecast a return to power for the AINRC-led NDA government in Puducherry.
In West Bengal, while most exit polls predicted a BJP win, two pollsters — People’s Pulse and Janmat polls — predicted a big win for Mamata Banerjee-led TMC. People’s Pulse predicted that the TMC would get 177-187 seats, BJP 95-110, Left Front 0-1 and the Congress 1-3. The Janmat polls forecast 195-205 for the TMC and 80-90 for the BJP plus and 1-3 for the Congress.
Most polls gave the BJP an edge or a victory in West Bengal. Matrize said it is likely to get 146-161 seats, while the TMC would get 125-140 seats.
P-Marq predicted 150-175 for the BJP and 118-138 to the TMC.
While Poll Diary forecast 142-171 seats to the BJP, 99-127 to the TMC and 3-5 of the Congress, Praja Poll predicted a big win for the BJP, forecasting 178-208 seats for it. Praja Poll said the TMC would get 85-110 seats. West Bengal has a total of 294 seats with the majority mark being 148.
In Tamil Nadu, two exit polls caught everyone’s eye as they predicted a hung House. Axis My India forecast 92-110 seats for the ruling DMK-led alliance, 22-23 for the AIADMK plus and 98-120 for the TVK, which is making its poll debut. Kamakhya Analytics forecast 78-95 seats for the DMK plus, 68-84 for the AIADMK plus and 67-81 for the TVK.
Several polls predicted a big win for the DMK with the People’s Pulse predicting 125-145 for the DMK-led alliance, 65-80 for AIADMK-BJP and 18-24 for TVK.
While Matrize forecast that the DMK-Congress would get 122-132, AIADMK plus 87-100 and TVK 10-12, P-Marq predicted 125-145 for DMK plus, 65-85 for the AIADMK and 16-26 for the TVK.
JVC is the only pollster that has predicted an AIADMK win, forecasting 128-147 seats for the AIADMK plus. It also forecast 75-95 for the DMK plus and 18-15 for the TVK.
Praja polls predicted 148-168 seats for the DMK plus, 61-81 for the AIADMK and 1-9 for the TVK.
Peoples Insight forecast 120-140 seats for the DMK plus, 60-70 for the AIADMK and 30-40 for the TVK.
The Tamil Nadu has a total of 234 seats with the magic mark being 118.
In Assam, Axis My India predicted a sweep for the BJP, forecasting 88-100 seats for the BJP and its allies and 24-36 seats for the Congress and its partners.
People’s Pulse predicted that the NDA would get 68-72 seats in Assam while the Congress plus would secure in the range of 22-26 seats.
Matrize said the NDA is likely to get between 85-95 seats and the Congress and its allies 25-32.
Pollster JVC projected that the BJP plus would get 88-101 seats and the Congress and its allies 23-33 seats.
While Kamakhya Analytics predicted 85-95 seats for the BJP and its allies and 26-39 seats for the Congress and its allies, People’s Insight forecast 88-96 seats for the NDA and 30-34 for the Congress in Assam.
Poll Diary gave 86-101 seats to the NDA and 15-26 for the Congress plus. The Assam assembly has 126 seats with the magic mark being 64.
In Kerala, Axis My India forecast that the UDF would get 78-90 seats, LDF 49-62 and NDA 0-3.
People’s Pulse predicted that the Congress-led UDF would get 75-85 seats, the LDF 55-65 and the NDA 0-3.
Matrize forecast 60-65 seats for the LDF, 70-75 seats for the UDF and 3-5 seats for the NDA.
While Peoples Insight predicted 58-68 seats for the LDF, 66-76 seats for the UDF and 10-14 seats for the NDA, Vote Vibe predicted 58-68 seats for the LDF, 70-80 seats for the UDF and zero for the NDA. Kerala Assembly has a total of 140 seats with the magic mark being 71.
In Puducherry, Axis My India predicted 16-20 seats for the NDA and 6-8 for the DMK-Congress. It said the TVK is likely to get 2-4 seats in the assembly.
While Kamakhya Analytics predicted 17-24 seats for the AINRC plus (NDA), 4-7 for the Congress plus and 1-2 for teh TVK, Peoples Pulse predicted 16-19 seats for the AINRC plus and 10-12 for the Congress plus.
Praja Poll forecast 19-25 for the AINRC and 6-10 for the Congress plus.
There are 30 elected seats in Puducherry.
Most exit polls have had a chequered history and have been off the mark on several occasions in the past. Some exit polls like Axis My India for West Bengal will be released on Thursday.
The counting of votes for all the five assemblies — West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and Assam — will be taken up on May 4.
Polls were conducted in a single phase in Assam, Kerala, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu. West Bengal saw two-phase polling on April 23 and 29.
On April 9, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry went to polls. Tamil Nadu went to polls on April 23.
While the BJP is seeking to retain power in Assam and Puducherry, where it is in an alliance government with All India N R Congress, the Congress is looking to wrest power from its rival in both these places.
In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF is seeking to replace the LDF government that is in power, while in Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led alliance is looking to retain power by thwarting the challenge from AIADMK-BJP and the debutant party — Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam. The TMC is looking to retain West Bengal and thwart the challenge from the BJP.
