Atiya Mujeeb
Srinagar, October 9: Jammu and Kashmir may experience a relatively dry winter under the influence of El Niño, while intermittent spells of light rain and snowfall are expected over the coming days, Director of the Meteorological Department Dr Mukhtar Ahmad told The News Now.
Dr Ahmad said a brief spell of precipitation around October 8 had been anticipated, with weather activity reported in parts of the Valley. Light rain or snowfall is likely at scattered places on October 10, while thunderstorms and gusty winds may accompany another spell on October 13 and 14.
He clarified that no major weather spell was expected around October 20, according to his assessment.
Advising farmers to continue harvesting, Dr Ahmad urged them to ensure the safe storage of harvested crops, particularly apples and paddy, as intermittent rainfall could disrupt harvesting operations.
On the possible impact of El Niño, he indicated that December could remain relatively dry, similar to the previous year. The developing climate pattern may also influence weather conditions into early 2027, although seasonal outcomes remain uncertain.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in its October 8 ENSO update, said a strong to very strong El Niño was likely to persist through January–March 2027. However, the presence of El Niño alone does not guarantee dry conditions in Kashmir, as regional weather is also influenced by Western Disturbances and other atmospheric factors.
Earlier, Dr Ahmad had said that Jammu and Kashmir could experience a relatively mild and dry winter, while cautioning that one or two significant snowfall spells during the peak winter period could not be ruled out.
Chillai-Kalan, the 40-day harshest period of winter in Kashmir, begins in late December and lasts until the end of January. Its snowfall and temperature patterns will depend on the weather systems affecting the region during that period.
