SUMIT SHARMA
Jammu and Kashmir’s power-planning preparedness has come under fresh scrutiny after provisional figures revealed a massive gap between projected and actual electricity availability in September, raising concerns ahead of the winter demand surge.
Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh received 1,493 million units (MU) of electricity against the projected availability of 2,119 MU during September—a shortfall of 626 MU, or 29.5 per cent—even as their actual energy requirement remained below the original estimate.
The figures, placed before the Northern Regional Power Committee (NRPC), expose a striking mismatch between anticipated supply and actual availability. The committee has sought explanations for significant variations in electricity demand and availability, putting the spotlight on forecasting, procurement planning and winter preparedness.
According to the provisional data included in the agenda for the NRPC’s 248th Operation Coordination Committee meeting scheduled for October 22, the two Union Territories required 1,506 MU in September against actual availability of 1,493 MU, leaving an energy deficit of 13 MU.
The actual requirement was 90 MU lower than the projected 1,596 MU. Yet, despite the reduced requirement, electricity availability fell much more sharply than anticipated.
The figures do not explain the reasons behind the 626-MU variation, leaving the concerned power authorities to clarify whether changes in generation, power purchases, scheduling or other operational factors contributed to the gap.
The monthly figures conceal another challenge for power planners. While total energy requirement remained below projections, peak demand climbed to 2,735 megawatts (MW) against the estimated 2,500 MW.
The 235-MW overshoot represents a 9.4 per cent increase over the forecast.
The distinction is crucial: monthly energy requirement measures electricity needed over an entire month, while peak demand reflects the maximum power required at a particular time. Higher demand during morning and evening hours can strain the system even when overall monthly consumption is lower than expected.
The NRPC data record that the September peak demand of 2,735 MW was met. They do not establish a separate shortage during the peak-demand period.
The sharper warning lies ahead. For November, J&K and Ladakh are projected to require 3,813 MW at peak against anticipated availability of 3,190 MW, indicating a possible shortfall of 623 MW.
The projected energy requirement stands at 1,999 MU against expected availability of 1,810 MU, pointing to a potential deficit of 189 MU.
The projected peak gap amounts to around 16.3 per cent of the requirement, while the energy deficit works out to approximately 9.5 per cent.
These figures are forecasts, not confirmed shortages. The actual position will depend on electricity procurement, available generation, demand and measures taken by the authorities to bridge the gap.
The NRPC agenda also states that a revised November power-supply position for J&K and Ladakh had not been submitted when the document was prepared.
Winter preparedness is not limited to securing enough electricity. The reliability of transmission infrastructure and the ability to maintain grid voltage during high-demand periods are equally important.
A report published on October 20, citing the NRPC assessment, highlighted concerns over low voltage in the Kashmir Valley during the previous winter, when demand reportedly reached around 3,200 MW during morning and evening heating hours.
Low hydropower generation and heavy reactive-power drawal from the interstate transmission system had contributed to critically low voltages at several grid stations, according to the report.
The reported voltage levels fell to 347 kV on 400-kV buses and 178 kV on 220-kV buses, below the respective grid-code limits of 380 kV and 198 kV.
The NRPC has reportedly called for measures to strengthen reactive-power support, complete key transmission maintenance before winter and improve arrangements for restoring the Kashmir Valley grid following disruptions.
These measures assume added significance as electricity demand rises during the cold months and the system faces pressure from heating loads.
The winter-preparedness measures reported by the NRPC include maintenance of the Static Var Compensator at New Wanpoh, completion of maintenance on key 400-kV transmission lines before the end of November and arrangements to facilitate faster grid restoration.
The committee has also emphasised the need for synchronising trolley facilities at substations to support restoration following grid disturbances.
The objective is to minimise the risk of voltage instability and improve the resilience of the transmission network during the winter peak.
The projected deficit in J&K and Ladakh also highlights the difference between the overall regional power position and the supply available to individual areas.
Even when a wider region has surplus electricity, local shortages can arise from demand patterns, transmission constraints, procurement arrangements and the timing of available generation. However, the September figures alone do not establish which of these factors contributed to the projected shortfall in J&K and Ladakh.
The NRPC’s October 22 meeting is expected to bring the supply position and winter-preparedness measures into sharper focus.
The immediate questions are why actual September availability fell so far below the forecast, whether the November estimates have been revised, and what concrete arrangements are being made to bridge the projected winter gap.
For consumers, the critical issue is whether adequate electricity will be available during the hours of highest demand, when heating requirements put the power system under additional pressure.
The 626-MU gap does not, by itself, establish administrative failure or explain the cause of the variation. But the scale of the discrepancy makes a clear explanation and a credible winter supply plan essential.
With winter approaching, the power authorities face the task of converting forecasts into dependable supply, completing critical maintenance and ensuring that the region’s transmission network is prepared for the seasonal demand surge.
