CPEC: The new talk in the town

ZAFAR CHOUDHARY

Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti has recently talked about "long term (strategy to) revive the historical Silk Road in the region as a part of the larger paradigm of regional energy and economic cooperation". She has further said that "such an arrangement can be an alternative to the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) through this part of Kashmir". Ever since the goods laden containers originating from Kashgar began unloading the shipments into Gwadar port by second week of November 2016, Ms Mufti has emerged the fourth most significant voice in three countries to think of Jammu and Kashmir and CPEC together. Let's see who else is talking about it!
Look, who is talking
At a time when post Uri and post surgical strikes clamour in India and Pakistan called for suspending trade and cultural tries as mutual retribution, the Queta based Pakistan's Southern Army Commander, Lieutenant General Aamir Riaz, said India should "shun enmity" with Pakistan and join the CPEC along with Iran, Afghanistan and other Central Asian countries and enjoy its benefits. "India should share the fruits of future development by shelving the anti-Pakistan activities and subversion". It looked like as if some people were already waiting to offer a response to Gen Riaz's comments. An article in the State owned Chinese paper the Global Times advised New Delhi to accept Islamabad's offer, pitching that such an opportunity could be of transient benefit to all involved. "New Delhi should consider accepting the olive branch Pakistan has extended in a bid to participate in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the article suggested. The article further said "since India's primary strategy is to promote economic and social development in the Kashmir region, the best way to reduce hostilities is by establishing economic cooperation based on mutual benefits to put aside what cannot be reached by a consensus". This was further followed by Hua Chunyin, China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, in following words: "I have also seen relevant reports. I wonder what is India's take on this proposal by Pakistan; whether this is a good sign from the Pakistan side. On China's part, we view the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as a cooperation framework, and we hope that this programme will not only serve the interest of China and Pakistan but also of Asia and the region as a whole." If, at all, a branching out of CPEC or a CEPC type new network had to emerge between India and China this has to enter through Ladakh. The local informed view, therefore, is important. P Stobdan, a Ladakhi scholar and former Indian Envoy to Kyrgystan has recently written "The best way to blunt the CPEC is to think about India's own belt- and-road idea. Modi should offer Xi Jinping an alternative energy corridor originating from an Indian port running across Ladakh to China. Why not jointly use the Aksai-Chin highway? J&K needs resetting for it to be advantage India". Stobdan further says, "The proposal could spring multiple advantages, ranging from attracting Chinese investment, earning billions as transit fee to nudging Beijing to depend on India, thereby buying guarantee against any Chinese misadventure. China stands to gain from a more reliable economic corridor than risking investments in terrorism-plagued Pakistan".
Back to Mehbooba
Chief Minister's statement on Silk Road and CPEC came in her reply, in Legislative Council, to discussion on the Governor's address last week. When Legislators mostly discussed last year's Kashmir turmoil, unemployment, security and their constituency related issues, Ms Mehbooba's making mention of larger regional vision, in her reply, merits attention. In view of hostilities between India and Pakistan, each other's claim on Jammu and Kashmir's territories, war and proxy wars, the possibility of trade and travel across the Line of Control was perhaps no one's imagination. It was initial ideas cropping up in scholarly discussions in the 1990s that fuelled strategic imaginations, found way into policy frameworks and eventually led to opening of the Line of Control. Ms Mufti's suggestions, therefore, cannot be taken casually. In the Legislature, in media and in academia this idea needs to be discussed more and more as test case of possibility.
The CPEC case
Connectivity is transforming the modern world in a great way and in this direction China has taken a massive lead. Its project called 'One Belt, One Road', is set to be next big thing in the world. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor or the CPEC is already being touted as eighth wonder of the world in terms of the gravel and mountains that have been cut through the Karakoram Range to connect the oasis city of Kashgar in China's Xinjiang province with Gawadar, the port city in south-western coastline of Pakistan's Balochistan province. New Delhi's official stand is that CPEC violates India's sovereignty -the map on our walls shows Gilgit-Baltistan ours despite it being Pakistan's administrative region for 70 years. India also lacks a clear policy on whether or not to join the CPEC. At $46 Billion Chinese investment, perhaps the largest between any two countries, in general Indian perspective the CPEC is mostly seen as a mere China-Pakistan economic engagement, which it is not. At the outset it is a major cooperation between four large economies -the Chinese, the SAARC, Eurasia and the Asia Pacific. Russia has already arrived in it, UK says they are 'considering the offer'. Could India completely stay away from this network? This is a question Indian policy makers, economists, strategic thinker and security establishment will have to ponder over but there is caveat -do we want to keep on looking at our regional position from the traditional security perspective or are we ready to leverage our geostrategic position for geo-economic advantage. One also needs to understand that CPEC rather than being an end in itself is just a part of the China's ambitious OBOR -One Belt One Road -project which not just an economic corridor but a long term project to alter world power equation and establishing a new world order which is essentially Chinese world order. Having said that the same initial question comes to mind -could India stay away from such a development in the region.
Epilogue
Jumping on from CPEC, another long term aspect of the OBOR is reshaping of cultural and ideological spaces. Ladakh was pivotal to the Silk Road; the Kashmir Valley bore influences of Central Asia. On the western and northern side of Karakoram, Kashgar is regaining the status this city one had on the Silk Road while on eastern side Ladakh is lost in the oblivion because of paranoia and infrastructural bottlenecks. Historically an entrepot between South and Central Asia, Leh can regain its glorious position.
Author, a senior journalist and policy analyst, can be reached at [email protected]