Is LS poll-2024 an existential threat for NC?

Srinagar: The current Lok Sabha election is coming with some unprecedented challenges for the National Conference (NC) which swept polls and ruled the erstwhile State of Jammu and Kashmir for decades.
Winning and losing elections has been a routine feature for the NC but this is arguably for the first time that a democratic exercise has posed existential threats to the party that enjoyed monopoly in the valley’s electoral battles for over 50 years. It is for the first time that the valley-based party is seeking a sort of ‘referendum’ over its key pedestal of Article 370 which was dismantled by the BJP government at the Centre in 2019.
The NC’s top brass, including the former Chief Ministers Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah, have invariably in their public meetings called the current elections as a referendum against the abrogation of Article 370 which granted J&K a special status for nearly 70 years.
Will this ‘referendum’ bring positive or negative results for the NC? Nobody knows. Even the candidates have not been announced till date in Kashmir by the major parties. As of now, only the BJP, Congress and Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) have announced their candidates on a couple of seats.
In Jammu and Kashmir’s pre-2000 period, Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah’s NC has rarely lost an election. Right from the day of Sheikh’s return to the mainstream in 1975, the NC swept the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections in its key constituency of Kashmir.
The NC’s most challenging situation came in the Assembly elections of 1977 when a grand alliance under the banner of the then ruling party at the Centre, Janata Party, was pitted against Sheikh’s party. Prime Minister Morarji Desai and his cabinet and party colleagues addressed massive rallies in the valley even as Sheikh remained sick all through the campaign.
When the results came out, NC bagged 47 out of 76 seats—39 in Kashmir, 1 in Ladakh and 7 in Jammu. In the valley, it won 39 out of 42, leaving just one to Jamaat-e-Islami and two to the Janata Party. NC repeated the victory in 1983—around a year before Farooq Abdullah’s government was toppled by Indira Gandhi’s Congress party while engineering certain defections.
The NC faced the biggest test of strength in the Lok Sabha elections of 1984. It again swept the polls, giving Chief Minister Ghulam Mohammad Shah’s son, Muzaffar Shah, a crushing defeat with a massive margin of 2,86,277 votes in Srinagar.
The NC contested the Assembly elections of 1987 in a pre-poll alliance with the Congress. Amid allegations of rigging in some segments, it again bagged 40 seats. Congress won 26. Notwithstanding low-turnout polling, the NC won all the three Kashmir seats in the Lok Sabha elections of 1989.
The NC did not contest the Lok Sabha elections of 1996. In the Assembly elections of 1996, it again got a two-third majority. However, for the first time in an election, it lost power to Mufti Sayeed’s PDP and Congress in 2002. Notwithstanding this setback, NC won two seats in Kashmir and left only one to the PDP in the Lok Sabha elections of 2004. It again swept all the three Kashmir seats in 2009 and 2019.
In all Lok Sabha elections, NC suffered the only crushing defeat in 2014 when it lost all three of its Kashmir seats to the PDP. It was the time when its star campaigner and patriarch Farooq Abdullah was defeated by the PDP’s Tariq Hamid Karra in Srinagar. Later that year, it also lost the Assembly elections bringing its tally to the lowest ever 15 seats in a House of 87.
Notwithstanding its historic victories, all three of the Sheikh family politicians have been defeated on their home turf on one or the other occasion. While Farooq lost to PDP’s Karra in Lok Sabha elections of 2017, Omar was defeated by PDP’s Qazi Afzal in Ganderbal in the Assembly elections of 2002 and by PDP’s Mohammad Ashraf Mir in Sonwar (Srinagar) in 2014. Dr Mustafa Kamal lost to PDP’s Ghulam Hassan Mir in Gulmarg in 2002.
“Losing the Lok Sabha election of 2014 was a routine for the NC. This time around NC has very high stakes. Losing this time would be equal to losing its existence. It will heavily impact the UT’s first Assembly elections which could be following in the month of September”, said a senior journalist and political analyst wishing anonymity.
Opinion is critically divided in favour of and against the NC. “We had been struggling to get a tiller-tractor on loan and subsidy for 10 years. Every time the Agriculture Department gave it to undeserving people who had no land. They just grabbed the subsidy and disappeared. This time, the system is fully online and transparent. We are getting it without any hassles and without paying a penny to anybody”, said Abdul Rashid Parray of Khansahab.
According to the Jammu and Kashmir Bank officials, over 40,000 farmers like Parray are getting the benefit of the government scheme on the Kisan Credit Card in the Budgam district alone in the current year. Most of these beneficiaries speak against the former ruling parties, the NC and the PDP, alleging that they were “neck-deep in corruption”.
On the other hand, the first time voters like Tabinda Hoor of Budgam insist that they would support any party which could bring back Article 370 and Statehood.
“Now that everybody has rejected terrorism and separatism, there should be no objection to restoration of the Kashmiris’ political and cultural identity within the framework of the Indian Constitution”, she asserted. When it was pointed out to her that even the Supreme Court had confirmed the abrogation of Article 370, she said that everything would return after the change of the government at the Centre.
After Prime Minister Modi’s recent public meeting in Srinagar, many youngsters have been heard praising the restoration of peace, trade, tourism and education. “Civilian killings, attacks on security forces, hartal calendars, encounters, violent demonstrations, stone pelting and pellet guns have vanished. Trade, tourism, education, everything is flourishing. What else do the people want?” said an Assistant Professor at Government-run Sri Pratap Singh College. “NC or PDP can no more take the people for granted”, he said.
NC’s predicaments are not as severe as that of Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP which has been deserted by over 20 of its senior leaders and ex-Ministers in the last 5 years. Ex-Minister Basharat Bukhari, who had come in from PDP, and a defeated candidate, Manzoor Ahmad Wani of Khansahab, are the two-odd leaders who have quit the NC. However, in Jammu NC has lost a number of senior leaders including DS Rana, ex-Ministers Surjit Singh Salathia and Mushtaq Bukhari and ex-MLC Shehnaz Ganai.
“Our only problem is the ST status that has been granted to a population of 12 lakh Paharis by the Modi government recently. Because of this, we will be fighting a tough battle with the BJP or the BJP’s proxy candidate in South Kashmir. But we are hopeful to get substantial vote from the Gujjar and Pahari-dominated 7 segments of Poonch and Rajouri in addition to our majority vote in 5 segments in Kashmir if we field a right candidate”, former NC Minister Choudhary Mohammad Ramzan asserted.
Some of Farooq Abdullah’s recent speeches, nonetheless, betray a lack of confidence in the NC camp. He has called the EVMs “the big thief” and vowed to bring back the ballot paper “whenever we will return to power”.

Updated On 3/28/2024 3:07:58 AM