‘Unpredictability’ new catchword this time for election results….!

Observers, psephologists at a loss to read nerve, forecast combinations

Jammu: ‘Unpredictability’ is the new catch word in the political environment of J&K for the Assembly elections scheduled to begin from September 18. As campaigning for first phase has already reached crescendo, emerging political developments change the dynamics for every party, making the outcome highly unpredictable for evident reasons.
This is perhaps for the first time political observers and analysts find themselves in an unsure situation so far their reading and analysis is concerned. For any previous election in the past this used to be a near correct ‘judgment’ and the opinions generally used to be collectively almost same. The results would be seen buoying between two major parties in terms of majority gain in Kashmir (NC and PDP) and for Jammu it would be a distribution of seats alternatively for Congress and BJP.
However, it is not the same old scene this time when the dynamics have completely changed with more than just traditional rivals in fray, making it rather difficult for political pundits to understand the poll nerve. While in Jammu it is somehow the big fight between Congress and BJP alone, in Kashmir it is not so, though PDP and NC continue to dominate the scenario in many constituencies.
New parties like AIP, Apni Party and PC are already and expectedly there in the battle, it is as many independent candidates who have jumped into fray this time, on account of which the scene has become different and difficult for the mainstream candidates this time. Vote division may become a reality in many constituencies and almost all parties are bound to face erosion in that sense.
There is however, a ‘reading on the wall’ for some stalwarts who are seen to become ‘obsolete’ after this election, if they fail to register victory. Whether contesting as independents or on any party’s mandate, and even those staying away, the ‘prediction’ by poll experts (psephologists) includes names of seasoned politicians as having occupied positions of Chief Ministers and Deputy Chief Ministers. Their stakes are very high for them as the outcome of polls would decide their political future in the UT, observers suggest. The latter also attribute highly difficult scene at hustings for a mix of seasoned politicians to redefining of constituencies in Delimitation exercise which was conducted two years back that has left a huge mark of difference from erstwhile polls on the ground. Distribution of areas to a new mix of Assembly constituencies have made the works done by ex MLAs now redundant, rather meaningless in the changed scenario

Updated On 9/12/2024 1:18:43 AM