Good rains expected in J&K coming monsoons

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JAMMU: A good weather forecast is coming for Jammu and Kashmir this monsoon season with prediction for normal rains even as deficient showers are expected for most parts of the country.

Three days later than the expected schedule, monsoon showers are set to hit Kerala on June 4. As the monsoons progress towards northwest towards middle to end of June, Jammu and Kashmir is expected to get better rainfall than the immediately neighbouring plains like Punjab and Haryana.

A private weather forecast company Skymet said, monsoon will be "below normal" in the country with a Long Period Average (LPA) of 93 per cent and an error margin of five per cent. The LPA for Jammu and Kashmir is predicted at 96 percent which is the borderline normal.

"All the four regions are going to witness lesser than normal rainfall, this season. Rainfall in East and Northeast India and central parts will be poorer than Northwest India and South Peninsula," Singh said.

According to Skymet, there are 55 per cent chances of a below normal rainfall, which will have an influence of El Nino, a phenomenon linked to the heating of Pacific waters.

East and Northeast India will get 92 per cent of the LPA which falls under the below normal category.

Risk remains high for Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal, while it will be marginal for Northeast India, Skymet said.

Northwest India that comprises all north Indian states will receive 96 per cent rainfall of the LPA, which falls on the border line of normal and below normal rainfall category.

Hilly states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are likely to perform better than the plains of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi- NCR, the Skymet said.

Central India is likely to receive rainfall of 91 per cent of the LPA. Rainfall in Vidarbha, Marathwada, west Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat will be "poorer than normal".

This is likely to aggravate the situation as Marathwada and several parts of Gujarat been facing farm distress and drought like situation.

Conditions will be more or less similar in South peninsula.

"North interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema may see poor rainfall. Kerala and coastal Karnataka are likely to perform better," Skymet said.