WILL PRIYANKA JUMP INTO POLL FRAY IN 2019?

Congress circles are abuzz with speculation that Sonia Gandhi, currently a Member of Parliament from Rae Bareli, might not seek re-election in the general elections, thus paving way for Priyanka Vadra. Sonia Gandhi retired from the position of Congress president in December 2017, leading to Rahul Gandhi’s accession to the top position. Sonia Gandhi, who is controlling the party even after relinquishing office, is keen on retiring from electoral politics. A senior Congress leader requesting anonymity said, “We cannot conclude anything yet. She might be thinking about it or she might not. Whether Priyanka Vadra will contest elections in 2019 and from which constituency is a family matter. There is still time in finalising these decisions.”However, this has led to further speculation whether Rahul Gandhi will contest from his constituency Amethi or Sonia Gandhi’s constituency Rae Bareli, which is strongly connected to the Gandhi family. Feroze Gandhi, husband of Indira Gandhi, had won independent India’s first general election in 1952, from Rae Bareli after being a member of the provincial parliament (1950–1952). Indira Gandhi had travelled from Delhi and worked as Feroze Gandhi’s campaign organiser.

Feroze Gandhi represented Rae Bareli till his death in 1960. Thereafter, Thakur Rajendra Pratap Singh represented the constituency. Indira Gandhi, who had won from Rae Bareli in 1967 and 1971, lost in 1977 contesting against Bhartiya Lok Dal’s Raj Narain. In 1980, Indira Gandhi again contested from Rae Bareli and also from Medak, now in Telangana, and won both the seats, but retained Medak after becoming Prime Minister. Arun Nehru, a family member and a close associate at one time, represented the seat and so did Satish Sharma, another close family friend. Sonia Gandhi shifted thereafter in 2004. Sonia Gandhi, after contesting from Amethi constituency in 1999, shifted to Rae Bareli in 2004 which she continues to hold till date, thus vacating the Amethi seat for Rahul Gandhi. Given the importance of Rae Bareli, speculation is rife whether Rahul Gandhi will shift his constituency and contest from Rae Bareli in 2019, symbolising his presidentship. In such a scenario, Priyanka Vadra might contest from Amethi.

A look at Sonia Gandhi’s performance in Rae Bareli shows that her votes have remained consistent over elections, thus establishing a strong precedence for anyone to follow in her role. In 2004, Sonia Gandhi won by a margin of 249,765 against Samajwadi Party’s Ashok Kumar Singh. In 2009, she won by a margin of 372,165 votes against Bahujan Samaj Party’s R.S. Kushwaha, while in 2014, she won by a margin of 352,713 votes against BJP’s Ajay Agrawal. On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi’s votes in Amethi have witnessed a drastic upheaval. In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, Rahul Gandhi won by a margin of 290,849 votes against BSP’s Chandra Parkash Mishra Matiyari; in 2009, he won against BSP’s Asheesh Shukla with an improved margin of 370,198 votes; however, in 2014, Rahul Gandhi witnessed the margin of his votes declining to 107,903 when he contested against BJP’s Smriti Irani. Amethi was among the most watched constituencies during the 2014 elections, as Rahul Gandhi was to re-affirm his hold on this seat. He was challenged by Smriti Irani, who was a late entrant to Amethi. Another contender against Rahul Gandhi was Aam Aadmi Party’s Kumar Vishwas who could not score more than 26,000 votes, but ate into Congress’ vote bank.