J&K's Alliance of Inconvenience Falls, Abruptly

Zafar Choudhary. Updated: 6/20/2018 11:39:27 AM Front Page

Mehbooba recalls Mufti's vision, nearly absolves BJP, almost indicts Pakistan, separatists, militants

Governor's Rule: In departure lounge of his second term, Vohra likely to get extension

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"I also take this opportunity to thank Pakistan, separatists and militants for allowing a peaceful election which has brought us to this stage", said Mufti Mohammad Sayeed in his presser an hour after being sworn in as Chief Minister, in presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, of the alliance government of his Peoples Democratic Party and the ideological rival Bhartiya Janta Party, on March 1, 2015. A little over 39 months later, an hour after tendering her resignation as Chief Minister, Mehbooba Mufti almost blamed the same three parties for fall of, what her father would often describe as, an alliance between north pole and the south pole.

After consultations with four political parties -BJP, PDP, Congress and NC -Governor NN Vohra has forwarded his report to the President of India's Secretariat for imposition of the Governor's Rule under Section 92 of the Constitution of Jammu and Kashmir. Mehbooba Mufti, in the meanwhile, has been asked to carry on as caretaker Chief Minister. Governor Vohra, whose second term is ending on June 28, is likely to get a further extension in office.

A number of high billed developments on political and security front on Tuesday culminated into the Bhartiya Janta Party pulling the rug beneath feet of Mehbooba Mufti. When Ram Madhav, BJP's Kashmir point man and someone widely regarded as architect of the modalities of alliance with PDP, made the televised announcement from New Delhi, Mehbooba and most of her Ministers were in their Secretariat chambers busy with the usual work. There are at least three versions of the story of how she got to know of the BJP's surprise move -Ram Madhav phoned her, Governor phoned her or she learnt from the TV -but analysts claim that Mehbooba could already have been in know of the imminent development.

The alliance between PDP and BJP, something unthinkable until early 2015, was always seen as huge personal political risk for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and PDP's founder leader Mufti Mohammad Sayeed. The core constituency of both parties remained always annoyed with their leadership for making such ideological compromise. Risk was always much higher for the BJP whose constituency runs across the country as against PDP's support base in the Kashmir Valley and some predominantly Muslim majority areas of Jammu. While both parties had cited the reason of unique mandate -BJP bagging 25 of 37 seats in Jammu region and the PDP getting 25 of 46 seats in Kashmir -but there was a much stronger reason behind their unusual decision to join hands.

While the BJP wanted to push through the development agenda and moderate the political environment in Kashmir, the PDP saw in BJP, particularly in the popularity of PM Modi, a robust political mandate to take bold decisions for a peaceful settlement of Kashmir by way of holding dialogue with the separatists and also Pakistan. The PDP's highly risky step of partnering with its biggest ideological rival ever was matched by the BJP by agreeing to make the dialogue with separatists and Pakistan as a commitment in their historic yet controversial Agenda of Alliance.

In the ten-month long tenure of Mufti Sayeed as Chief Minister no development took place on the agenda items of PDP's political choice. Mufti's statement of thanking Pakistan, separatists and militants had hurt the Prime Minister Modi personally and it believed that it broke the bonhomie irreparably. On his visit to Srinagar on November 7, 2015, PM Modi nearly left Mufti embarrassed when he said to a sizeable Kashmiri audience that "on Kashmir I don't need anyone's advice or analysis". However, PM Modi announced a whopping Rs 80,000 Crore development package which reflected realization of BJP's developmental commitment.

In December 2015, when Mufti lay hospitalized eventually succumbing to brief illness two months later, PM Modi sprung surprise by calling on Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharief at his family house in Raiwind, near Lahore. The PDP was not allowed to take an advantage for this historic visit as there was no advance alert to the party leadership. In less than ten days of Lahore visit PM Modi's initiative suffered severe setback with terrorist attack on Pathankote airbase. Here onwards relations with Pakistan continued to deteriorate and reached to the extent that after a number of high profile attacks on security formations, India had to conduct surgical strikes across the Line of Control.

Upon demise of Mufti Sayeed on January 7, 2016, Mehbooba showed reluctance to continue alliance with the BJP. It was only on personal intervention of PM Modi that Mehbooba climbed down from her several conditions and took oath of the Chief Minister on April 4, 2016 with no fresh political commitments coming from New Delhi. Three months later Kashmir fell into a dangerous chaos massive protests erupted after killing of a Hizbul Mujahideen militant called Burhan Wani. The evolving situation made it further difficult to initiate any dialogue even as several official and unofficial delegations visited Srinagar and Mehbooba also wrote personal letters to the Hurriyat leaders.

Continuation of this atmosphere of confrontation damaged PDP's popularity several notches even as BJP politically suffered, much badly, in Jammu and other parts of country for the situation in Kashmir. In October 2017, the BJP significantly climbed down from its existing position on Kashmir by appointing an interlocutor -Dineshwar Sharma -for peace talks. The separatists rejected the move and militants stepped up their activities. Pakistan also made official statements dismissing the appointment of interlocutor.

Since January this year a number of developments were taking place for cooling down the tempers in Kashmir even at a significant political cost of BJP. Home Minister Rajnath Singh not only authorized withdrawal of criminal cases against Kashmir's stone-pelters, he also publically owned this decision. Restrictions on top separatist leaders were lifted. Despite a nationwide opposition, including from within the BJP, the Centre agreed to Mehbooba's demand for a ceasefire across the month of Ramazan. None of these initiatives gained any positive response from the militants and separatists.

After tendering her resignation, Mehbooba mentioned all these advantages PDP was able to gain by way of aligning with BJP but then she concluded by saying that "yahan se response nahin aaya". She evidently regretted lack of reciprocation from Pakistan, separatists and militants, the three parties ploughed into, whom Mufti Sayeed had thanked on the first day of his partnership with BJP.

What next?

This afternoon Governor N.N. Vohra received a letter by fax, jointly signed by Ravinder Raina and Kavinder Gupta, State BJP President and Leader, BJP Legislature Party, respectively, to withdraw BJP's support to the Coalition Government. Thereafter, Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti tendered her resignation and the Governor has asked her to continue in office till alternative arrangements are made.

Governor spoke to Kavinder Gupta and Mehbooba Mufti to ascertain whether their respective Political Parties intended to explore alternative alliances to form the Government of the State and was informed in the negative by both the leaders. Governor also spoke to G.A. Mir, President J&K Congress Party, who informed that his Party did not have the numerical strength to form Government on its own or in alliance. Later, Governor had a meeting with Omar Abdullah, Vice President, National Conference, who stated that there was no alternative to Governor's Rule and elections.

After concluding his consultations with all the major Political Parties in J&K Governor Vohra has forwarded his Report to the President of India for imposition of Governor's Rule under Section 92 of the Constitution of Jammu and Kashmir.


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