Scientists warn of a possible earthquake around Reasi

TNN Bureau. Updated: 5/18/2016 7:51:35 PM Top Stories

JAMMU: New geologic mapping in the Himalayan mountains of Jammu and Kashmir suggests that the region is ripe for a major earthquake that could endanger the lives of many, according to an Oregon State University statement. Geologist from Jammu region too had suggested in 2005 that in future if Punjab and Tibet plate strike each other may leads to major earthquake and some habitations around Chenab river may raised down to rubbles.
Scientists have found that the Reasi fault near Jammu has been building up pressure for some time, suggesting that when it does release or "slip", the resulting earthquake may be large.
Scientists started looking at this fault more closely following the 7.6-magnitude earthquake in 2005 on the nearby Balakot-Bagh fault in the Pakistan side of Kashmir, which was not considered particularly dangerous because it wasn't on the plate boundary. The 2005 Kashmir earthquake killed about 80,000 people in Pakistan and India.
Results of the new study, which was funded by the National Science Foundation of US, have been accepted for publication by the Geological Society of America Bulletin, and published online.
"What we set out to learn was how much the fault has moved in the last tens of thousands of years, when it moved, and how different segments of the fault move," said Yann Gavillot , lead author on the study who did much of the work as a doctoral student at Oregon State University. "What we found was that the Riasi fault is one of the main active faults in Kashmir, but there is a lack of earthquakes in the more recent geologic record. The fault hasn't slipped for a long time, which means the potential for a large earthquake is strong. It's not a question of if it's going to happen. It's a matter of when."
Gavillot said a major earthquake at the Riasi fault could have a major impact on Jammu, which has a population of about 1.5 million people. Another 700,000 people live in towns located right on the fault.
"There are also several dams on the Chenab river near the fault, and a major railroad that goes through or over dozens of tunnels, overpasses and bridges," Gavillot said. "The potential for destruction is much greater than the 2005 earthquake."
There is direct evidence of some seismic activity on the fault, where the researchers could see displacement of the Earth where an earthquake lifted one section of the fault five or more meters - possibly about 4,000 years ago. Written records from local monasteries refer to strong ground-shaking over the past several thousand years.


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