Waiting for rich monsoon

While many regions within Jammu and Kashmir are enjoying the serenity and breeze of spring, in Jammu the summer is already at its peak -40 degrees having been touched. As the mercury takes upward journey, the weatherman has at least one good news: prediction of normal and timely monsoons. The forecast of a near normal monsoon for should bring cheer as it will give a boost to the economy, especially the agricultural sector, and also lift the spirits of the people. Another good monsoon is needed after last year’s fairly decent rains which undid the damage done by the deficient rainfall of the two previous years. The impact of good rain has to be seen nationally. Last year’s recovery might be strengthened by good rains this year. The state of the monsoon is crucial for the rural economy. Though agriculture accounts for only 15% of the GDP, a majority of the people depend on it for their livelihood. Higher farm output and incomes increase the rural purchasing power and boost many industries and services. They help to contain inflation. A good monsoon also increases the availability of water for drinking, irrigation, power generation and other purposes. This is very important at a time when there is increasing awareness of the value of water. The IMD has said that the rainfall will be about 96% of the long period average, with a 5% margin of error. It has made only a preliminary estimate and a detailed prediction will be made in June. A private forecaster, Skymet, had predicted below average monsoon with 95% of the long-term average. So the difference is not very wide and underlines the need for caution. The IMD says it has taken into consideration the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific which usually hurts the monsoon and factors like the La Nina and other temperature regimes in the ocean. More important than the average rainfall is the distribution of rain in different parts of the country. The IMD has said that the rainfall will be uniform across the country. But Skymet has hinted at the possibility of deficient rainfall in western and peninsular India, covering parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. The monsoon failed in many of these areas last year, creating severe drought conditions. So, the authorities and the people of these areas should be prepared to face a deficient situation, too. The IMD’s monsoon forecasts have not been too accurate in the last few years, though they were not as off the mark as in the 1990s. This year, it has used a new, dynamic model, adapted from the US, and not the statistical method which it had developed in the last two decades. Predictions based on the old method have also agreed with those made on the basis of the new model. This has strengthened the forecast of a near normal monsoon. The new method will be on test this year.