WAR IS NOT REALLY IMMINENT
National Conference leader Omar Abdullah’s assessment sounds correct when he says that a risk of war between India and Pakistan is not real. Speaking at an event at the New York University last week, the former Chief Minister said that India and Pakistan are a "lot more careful" about the prospect of war than some of the news channels would like them to be.
Away from the crowd of war mongers, Omar said that he was not one of those who see imminent war looming in the sub-continent. ‘I'd like to believe that both governments in New Delhi and Islamabad are a lot more careful about the prospect of war than perhaps some of our TV channels would like them to be’, he said.
In fact this highlights a statement of fact that India and Pakistan perhaps never seriously wanted to for war and both countries keep providing opportunity to each other to prevent the same. Take for example; the government of India has been very careful in moderating how it presented to the rest of the world the surgical strikes conducted across the Line of Control in backdrop of Uri terrorist attack which Pakistan still keeps on denying any role in.
New Delhi has rather been very careful in explaining what they have done post the Uri militant attack. Post surgical strikes the world has been told that such an action was a necessary anti-terror operation conducted in the vicinity of the Line of Control.
The government has not gone into giving details of how far they went inside the LoC or how many people were killed in the strikes. This could have put Pakistan on more defensive. What that has allowed is for an opportunity for a sort of a more nuanced response on the part of Pakistan. Had India gone whole hog with details of the surgical strikes that would have put enormous pressure on Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to retaliate and this could have triggered war, though tilted in favour of India but not without avoidable losses.
When the Uri incident happened there were imminent clouds of war but those aware of strategic thinking could tell us that war is not happening though options with high degrees of success of limited scope of destruction have always existed.
The conventional wisdom in India is that there is space for limited war below the nuclear threshold. Though Indian military retaliation to a major terrorist strike would be carefully calibrated to avoid threatening Pakistan’s nuclear red lines, under certain circumstances the exchanges could escalate to a war in the plains.
For example, Pakistan may launch pre-emptive offensive operations across the International Border, forcing India to launch counter-offensive operations to destroy Pakistan’s war-waging machinery and simultaneously capture a limited amount of territory as a bargaining counter.
Even as such a thing is still happening as proved by latest developments along the International Border in Kathua, Samba and Jammu sector but India is still behaving with maturity and restraint. In the public, the political leaders who suggest dialogue are being condemned but in the end New Delhi and Islamabad will have to talk to each other to wipe out terrorism, which is a mutual enemy.
Recently Home Minister Rajnath Singh offered Pakistan help to combat terrorism but a vision and willingness has to, basically, come from Pakistan, which, in India’s new diplomatic phrase, has become an Ivy league of terrorism.