Long summer ahead

TNN Bureau. Updated: 3/30/2017 12:14:02 AM Edit and Opinion

In the four season calendar, the spring comes in between winter and summer. The summers in Jammu and Kashmir have been the haunted ones for violence in Kashmir since 2008. This year while the summer has set in quite early, if one looks at what is happening in the countryside and urban streets of Kashmir Valley. The past summer was a violent one in the valley, after the encounter killing of local militant Burhan Wani. It resulted in more than 80 local youth joining the militancy, the largest in the recent past. India has proof of Pakistani involvement. Supporting terror groups in neighbouring countries is of national interest to Islamabad and hence unlikely to be easily discarded. Pakistan has always considered Afghanistan as its strategic backyard and thus seeks a pro-Pak government in the country. With US and Indian involvement in Afghanistan, the local government is unlikely to change its policy. For Pakistan, gaining Kashmir appears to have become the sole purpose of its survival as a nation state. Four wars and no success has compelled it to adopt a policy of bleeding India with a thousand cuts. For India and Afghanistan, it is simply a case of payback. Terror can only be answered with terror. It is only when the sponsor of terror faces it and bleeds that lessons will possibly be learnt. Pressure mounts within Pakistan as minorities are attacked and suicide bombers tear internal security apart. But no lessons are learnt. Support to terror groups continues. The coming months are likely to be tough for the three countries. The Taliban summer offensive would commence in Afghanistan, post its winter restructuring, compelling the Trump administration to re-evaluate its Afghan strategy. Whether the US increases deployment or leaves it to the Afghan security forces to handle, time will tell. Pakistan’s army would be stretched to the limits, ensuring security of the CPEC and battling terror groups. Indian security forces would also brace for a violent summer, as the opening of the passes would result in an increased inflow of militants. The valley is again likely to be up in arms as civilian casualties mount when locals attempt to interfere in security operations. Terrorism in the region is internally sponsored by nations against each other. Ironically, each country feels supporting terror groups operating in the neighbourhood gives it strategic leverage. However, with passage of time, relations have deteriorated to levels where rapprochement appears unlikely. While India battles militancy in just one part, the other two countries face terror strikes across their length and breadth. Ultimately, it is the population which suffers and development remains hampered, as selfish leaders sponsor terror groups solely to control and retain power. Terror groups which were once assets are now liabilities as any action contemplated to rein them in is likely to fail and compel them to turn inwards. There is almost no choice for sponsor nations, unless self-realization sets in and concerted action is taken. This is unlikely, considering increased differences and powerful terror groups. Hence all that can be expected is a violent summer with enhanced casualties across the region.


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